Market Overview – September 2021
Global equities posted positive quarterly returns as economies reopened and activity picked up.
Global economy and markets
- Global equities posted positive quarterly returns as economies reopened and activity picked up.
- Investor concerns include the new COVID variant, rising European cases, inflation, central-bank tapering and a sharper China slowdown.
- Low interest rates and solid corporate earnings provide a strong foundation for equities.
Indian economy
- Activity is improving as fears of a third COVID wave recede, unlike the severe third waves in Europe and the US.
- Cases are trending down, helped by the vaccination programme and improving vaccine supply.
- Late rains cut the cumulative seasonal deficiency to 4% of the long-period average.
Indian stock markets
- The Nifty crossed 16,000 on 3 August, 17,000 on 31 August and 18,000 on 11 October.
- September saw record mutual-fund SIP inflows, crossing ₹10,000 crore for the first time.
- High-frequency indicators, GST collections, power consumption, railway freight and e-way bills, supported the rally.
- FII selling over the last two months has kept markets subdued and volatile.
Corporate performance (Q2 FY22)
- Net sales grew 28% YoY and were 22% above 2019 levels in July–September 2021.
- Operating profit rose 21% over 2020 and 31% over 2019.
- Operating margins slipped to 22.7% from 23.8% a year earlier.
- Oil & Gas, Metals and PSU Banks beat estimates; IT, Autos and Private Banks fell short.
Outlook
- The Sensex/Nifty corrected about 7–8% from recent highs, but many stocks fell far more.
- Of 1,168 companies above ₹250 crore market cap, 50% are down 20%, 20% down 30% and 10% down 40%.
- Valuations had run ahead of fundamentals; we have deployed some cash while maintaining a minimum 10% cash across clients.
Disclaimer. This overview reflects the views of the Care PMS investment team at the time of publication and is for information only. Investments in equities are subject to market risk. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Please read the disclosure document carefully before investing.
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