Market Overview – March 2026
The IMF cut its 2026 global growth forecast by 20 bps on Middle East conflict risks; the reference case is 3.1% for 2026 and 3.2% for 2027.
Global economy
- The IMF cut its 2026 global growth forecast by 20 bps on Middle East conflict risks; the reference case is 3.1% for 2026 and 3.2% for 2027.
- Growth is below the recent 3.4% pace and the 3.7% historical average; adverse scenarios could take it to 2.5% or 2.0%, hitting emerging markets hardest.
- Global financial conditions tightened as central banks turned cautious and bond yields rose.
- The US Fed held rates in April, with three dissents opposing a bias toward cuts.
Indian economy
- FY27 GDP, previously forecast at 7%, could lose up to 1% if the Gulf crisis persists.
- India imports 35–40% of its crude demand and 54% of pre-war LPG needs through the Strait of Hormuz.
- The rupee hit record lows, down nearly 15% against the US dollar over the past year.
- IMD cut its 2026 southwest monsoon forecast to 90% of the long-period average from 92%, the weakest since 2015.
Indian stock markets
- The Nifty fell 1.9% MoM in May 2026 after a 7.5% gain in April.
- Over the last 12 months, large-caps are down 5%, while mid-caps are up 7% and small-caps up 1%.
- FIIs recorded outflows of US$4.9 bn in May, a third consecutive month, taking CY26 YTD outflows to US$25.9 bn.
Corporate performance (Q4 FY26)
- Nifty PAT grew 4% YoY, the eighth consecutive single-digit quarter since June 2020; excluding Reliance and IndiGo, growth was 9%.
- BFSI, Metals, OMCs, Technology, Telecom and Automobiles drove the outperformance.
- The Growth Plus Value portfolio delivered revenue growth of 20% and PAT growth of 25% for the quarter.
Outlook
- Higher crude prices and a likely below-normal monsoon have shifted India’s macro balance toward harder trade-offs between inflation, growth, the fiscal deficit and external stability.
- The coming quarters are expected to be challenging, with volatility likely to persist; management commentary after Q1 FY27 will matter more.
- The long-term India story remains intact, and current probabilities favour Indian equities.
Disclaimer. This overview reflects the views of the Care PMS investment team at the time of publication and is for information only. Investments in equities are subject to market risk. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Please read the disclosure document carefully before investing.
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