Market Overview – March 2024
Global growth is projected at 3.1% in 2024 and 3.2% in 2025, below the 3.8% 2000–2019 average.
Global economy and markets
- Global growth is projected at 3.1% in 2024 and 3.2% in 2025, below the 3.8% 2000–2019 average.
- Global inflation is forecast to fall from 6.8% in 2023 to 5.9% in 2024 and 4.5% in 2025.
- Consensus expects two to three US Fed rate cuts by the end of FY24; hard-landing risk has eased.
Indian economy
- GDP grew 7.8% in January–March 2024, driven by strong manufacturing.
- Full-year FY24 growth of 8.2% beat most estimates.
- Markets reached record highs after the coalition government formed, signalling policy continuity.
- The monsoon is forecast to be above normal and arrived in Kerala ahead of schedule.
Indian stock markets
- The Nifty 50 posted its eighth consecutive year of positive returns in 2023-24.
- The Nifty trades at about 20x 12-month forward P/E, near its long-period average.
- Near-term cues: government measures and the upcoming budget, the timing of global rate easing, and geopolitical uncertainty.
Corporate performance (Q4 FY24)
- India Inc. revenue grew 10% and PAT 16% YoY in Q4 FY24; excluding BFSI, 6% and 10%.
- This compares with average revenue and PAT growth of 3% and 55% in 9M FY24.
- Banks (26% revenue and PAT growth) and Automobiles (15% revenue, 94% PAT growth) led the quarter.
Top-5 holdings highlights
- JK Paper stood out as peers struggled with revenue and EBITDA-margin pressure.
- LT Foods grew revenue about 10%, though freight costs hurt margins and the dividend payout fell short of policy.
- Arvind delivered reasonable volume growth and better EBITDA margins, and moved its AMD business into a wholly owned subsidiary.
- DB Corp declared a ₹13 full-year dividend (a 4% yield); Zydus beat expectations for a fourth consecutive quarter.
Outlook
- We plan to book profits where prices rose sharply in a short span and valuations expanded.
- With small-cap valuations stretched, few new opportunities exist; some large-caps were added.
- The priority is to protect last year’s returns and use any sharp, healthy correction to deploy funds.
Disclaimer. This overview reflects the views of the Care PMS investment team at the time of publication and is for information only. Investments in equities are subject to market risk. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Please read the disclosure document carefully before investing.
Fund Managers Speak
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