Market Overview – June 2023
Global growth is fragile, projected at 2.7% for 2023, the weakest since the global financial crisis excluding 2020, though above April’s forecast.
Global economy
- Global growth is fragile, projected at 2.7% for 2023, the weakest since the global financial crisis excluding 2020, though above April’s forecast.
- Growth is expected to improve modestly to 2.9% in 2024.
- The fastest Fed and ECB hikes in 40 and 30 years are lowering global headline inflation from 8.7% (2022) to 6.8% (2023) and 5.2% (2024).
- Average growth over the next decade is estimated at 2.6% (3.3% pre-pandemic); India contributes 15% of 2023 global GDP growth.
Indian economy
- FY24 GDP growth was revised up to 6.5%, 0.2% above April’s projection.
- Manufacturing PMI hit a 31-month high, credit growth stayed above 15%, and GST collections exceeded ₹1.6 lakh crore for a second month.
- The monsoon through mid-August is 2% above normal, easing El Niño concerns, though rural demand remained a key worry.
- In a pre-election year, rural demand is likely to recover with higher government spending.
Indian stock markets
- Indian markets rallied 13% from April to July on a stable macro outlook and falling inflation.
- Sensex total return was 12.30% (April 3.60%, May 2.50%, June 3.40%, July 2.80%).
- BSE Mid-Cap returned 24.10% and BSE Small-Cap 27.10%, outperforming large-caps.
- FPIs invested about ₹1.07 lakh crore (US$12.5 bn) in April–July, including ₹30,660 crore in July.
Corporate performance
- Across 2,937 listed companies, Q1 FY24 net sales grew 5.3% YoY, the slowest since January–March 2021.
- The slowdown was broad-based except for Banks & NBFCs and Automotive.
- Combined net profit hit a record, up 47.2% YoY, on lower raw-material and energy costs.
- Banks & NBFCs, Auto & Auto Ancillaries and Oil & Gas drove nearly 90% of the profit surge.
Outlook
- Growth Plus Value returned 10.40% in July and 17.00% over June–July.
- The BSE 500 TRI returned 3.90% in July and 8.40% over June–July; BSE Small-Cap 7.40% and 14.70%.
- Nifty earnings are expected to grow about 20% YoY in Q1 FY24 and about 15% in FY24, with valuations slightly above the long-term average.
- Of our top seven holdings (over 50% weight), four significantly outperformed expectations and two underperformed.
Disclaimer. This overview reflects the views of the Care PMS investment team at the time of publication and is for information only. Investments in equities are subject to market risk. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Please read the disclosure document carefully before investing.
Fund Managers Speak
Market Overview – June 2026
Global growth is forecast to slow to 2.5% this year, the lowest since the pandemic, as higher energy prices, rising inflation, tighter monetary conditions and weaker trade weigh on activity.
Read the overview
Market Overview – March 2026
The IMF cut its 2026 global growth forecast by 20 bps on Middle East conflict risks; the reference case is 3.1% for 2026 and 3.2% for 2027.
Read the overview
Market Overview – December 2025
The IMF projects global growth of 3.3% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027, versus an estimated 3.3% in 2025.
Read the overviewBegin your Care PMS journey.
Invest directly with a SEBI registered portfolio manager, as a resident or a non-resident investor. Contact us at connect@carepms.com and our team will guide you through every step.
- 01
Consultation
A conversation with our team about your objectives, investment horizon and risk appetite, and the approach best suited to them.
- 02
Documentation
A PMS bank account and demat account are opened in your name. You sign the PMS agreement and grant the Power of Attorney.
- 03
Portfolio activation
Invest fresh funds of ₹50 lakh or more, or introduce an existing portfolio. Statements and reporting follow every month.